Forecasting for Uncertainty: Turning Data Into Decisions When the Market Won't Sit Still

Summary

Which admits are actually going to show up? This question drives much of enrollment planning, and it's just one aspect of forecasting for enrollment leaders. Liaison's Hayley Wolf, Vice President of Sales, and Craig Cornell, Vice President of Undergraduate and Systems Enrollment Strategy, join host Stephen Taylor to unpack how institutions, programs, and schools develop forecasts to estimate financial performance, operational needs, enrollment outcomes, and future market demand. Each forecast relies on different data and serves a different audience. Stephen, Hayley, and Craig discuss how enrollment leaders combine data, experience, and judgment to make better decisions when certainty isn't an option.

TOPICS: Enrollment Management

Key Moments in This Episode

Topic 1 | Forecasting the Class

Which admitted students will enroll?

[01:00] Forecasting Perspectives and Assumptions

Steve outlines the three forecasting perspectives this episode will cover. Craig discusses which forecasting assumptions have held up over time, and which no longer apply.

[06:58] Balancing Recruiter Intuition With the Data

Hayley shares how enrollment leaders weigh anecdotal insight from individual recruiters against the numbers when tracking whether they are ahead or behind on their goals.

Topic 2 | Turning Forecasts Into Decisions

Who needs to know what and when?

[12:48] Communicating Uncertainty Across Campus

Hayley details how to communicate uncertainty to varied audiences including presidents, provosts, finance leaders, and faculty.

[15:34] Reading the Room With Confidence Intervals

Craig compares how much presenting a confidence interval matters as much as trust and experience when helping stakeholders understand what a forecast is really telling them.

Topic 3 | Looking Beyond the Current Cycle

What are today's enrollment patterns telling us about tomorrow?

[25:47] Naming the Market Signals That Matter Most

Craig describes which external indicators deserve more attention today than they did five years ago and how leaders can tell whether a shift is temporary or permanent.

[28:14] Reframing Strategy as an Act of Flexibility

Hayley argues that long term planning must build in flexibility, since leaders may need to question whether current majors and program offerings still make sense as the market shifts. She compares an institution to a large ship that turns slowly, which is why smaller, more agile moves are needed to adjust course along the way.

Closing | Forecasting as a Shared Conversation

[30:32] The Forecast Behind Every Decision

Steve closes the conversation by tying the discussion back to a shared theme, noting that every stakeholder from admissions to student affairs to the president's office uses the same forecast to answer a different question.

Stephen Taylor
Vice President, Graduate Enrollment Strategy, Liaison

Steve joined the Liaison team in 2020 after almost 20 years in higher education administration. Leading teams and driving innovation at schools like Harvard Business School and ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business, Steve’s experience has focused on the intersection of people, process, and systems as drivers of smart growth. His most recent school position was as Associate Dean for Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business, where he led the unit responsible for all graduate business programs. He holds undergraduate degrees in General Studies and Information Systems and graduate degrees in Business Administration and Philosophy.

Hayley Wolf
Vice President, Sales, Liaison

Hayley Wolf is Liaison’s Vice President of Sales and is responsible for all new business across the company’s full suite of product offerings. Spending over a decade in leadership across three campus enrollment offices as Director of Admissions, she has been at Liaison for the last 6+ years. She has also successfully founded, operated, and sold two businesses. She is passionate about taking a consultative approach in assisting institutions of higher education with the right products and services to meet their enrollment and retention needs, ultimately better serving the college student population. She brings regional, mid-tier, and selective enrollment and campus knowledge and is passionate about leading teams to success. Hayley has her bachelor's degree from California State University Long Beach and a master's degree from Azusa Pacific University.

Craig Cornell
Vice President of Enrollment Strategy, Undergraduate and State Systems, Liaison

Craig Cornell is the Vice President for Enrollment Strategy at Liaison. In that capacity, he oversees a team of enrollment strategists and brings best practices, consultation, and data trends to campuses across the country in all things enrollment management. Craig also serves as the dedicated resource to NASH (National Association of Higher Education Systems) and works closely with the higher education system that Liaison supports. Before joining Liaison in 2023, Craig served for over 30 years in multiple higher education executive enrollment management positions. During his tenure, the campuses he served often received national recognition for enrollment growth, effective financial aid leveraging, marketing enhancements, and innovative enrollment strategies. Craig has published, consulted, been a keynote speaker, served on multiple boards, chaired national committees, and has presented for many state and national organizations on the many facets of strategic enrollment management and effective financial aid leveraging.

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